Amjad Ismail Agha
The Vienna talks are vague, although the course of the talks is lined with European, American and Iranian statements, but they always come within the framework of desires to overcome obstacles, without explanations of what those obstacles are, and how to overcome them to reach a new nuclear agreement. The Vienna talks explicitly aim at Washington’s return to the nuclear agreement, as well as Tehran’s return, with an Iranian part centered on Iran’s refusal to include the agreement with Washington, its regional activity files, and the development of ballistic missiles; All of this coincided with Ibrahim Raisi’s success in the Iranian elections, to shorten the scene of the talks in Vienna, within the two parts of the success of reviving the nuclear agreement during Raisi’s era, and the American pressures that work within the frameworks of the new agreement’s inclusion of multiple Middle Eastern files.
Numerous facts confirm that Ibrahim Raisi will not affect the progress of the negotiations in Vienna; During the third debate during the presidential elections in Iran, Raisi announced his intention to abide by the nuclear agreement, if it is reached, but according to the conditions of the Iranian leader, Ali Khamenei, and not in the wrong way of the Rouhani government in his opinion, and he ruled out that discussions about Iran’s regional role and its missiles would take place as part of the talks. He described it as “non-negotiable”.
Other data confirming Iran’s determination to revive the nuclear agreement, translated through the approval of the Iranian leader, Ali Khamenei, to enter the Vienna talks, which is an important indication of Tehran’s intentions to return to the agreement, and in the same context, Iran has begun to increase oil production, and that In preparation for the lifting of US sanctions and the start of oil exports, the completion of the nuclear agreement will bring political and economic gains to Iran, and to the extremist movement that currently controls the levers of power in it.
On the other hand, and although the positive atmosphere shades the atmosphere of the talks in Vienna, so far it has not been clear about any upcoming agreement between Iran and Washington, or the time for its reactivation, but what can be inferred through the course of the talks over the past months comes within the framework of US President Joe Biden has retreated from forcing Iran to conclude a broad agreement that includes files other than the nuclear program, as Biden considered that the main threat is the possibility of Iran developing a nuclear weapon, as long as it continues to abandon its commitment to the 2015 nuclear agreement. In return, there are Iranian conditions To agree to the American conditions, which are based on lifting the sanctions imposed on the oil, energy and financial sectors, and perhaps also lifting them on some Iranian figures, including the new president. Iran also wants the United States to provide a guarantee that it will not back down from the agreement again, and therefore wants a guarantee that the agreement will continue and not return. To impose sanctions on it again, and withdrawing from the agreement again, is still a source of great concern to Iran.
In connection with the above, providing guarantees from the American side that dispel Iranian concerns is a dilemma for the Biden administration, which means that the United States will need to ratify the Iranian nuclear agreement, as a treaty in the Senate, which includes a large republican bloc, and therefore this is a challenge Another is for the Biden administration, which is trying to frame the agreement with Iran on the nuclear file, while the Republicans in Congress want to review any agreement with Iran, according to the Nuclear Agreement Review Act, which was issued during the era of former President Barack Obama, but the Biden administration argues that merely returning to the agreement does not require Reviewing it according to the aforementioned law, and this will be the most important dilemma before returning to the agreement from the American side.
As for the other files, it seems that Biden allowed another path in the event that multiple files were not included in a broader and more comprehensive agreement. During his meeting with Israeli President Reuven Rivlin, the US President hinted at the air strikes that targeted the sites used by Iran in Syria, which are responsible according to the perspective. American, for attacks on American forces in Iraq. This suggests that Biden is threatening to use the military tool against Iran in Syria and Iraq.
As previously, it is possible for the Biden administration to allow Israel freedom of movement with regard to Iranian targets, which was translated by the new Israeli Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, when he said that “Israel will defend itself against any threat, even if alone.” On the other hand, Washington may work to use all available tools to confront Iranian activities in the region, which Washington sees as destabilizing, but the dilemma here is that the United States must establish frameworks and controls related to the mechanism of fighting Tehran in the region, in a manner that does not establish a wide regional war.
Israel has expressed its fears about any future nuclear agreement with Iran, especially since many Israeli officials have met with American officials, in order to prevent the Badin administration from returning to the agreement, or to develop a new agreement that takes into account Israeli security concerns, and Israel will try to take advantage of this context and request additional gains from The United States, on the other hand, and here could increase military coordination and cooperation between Tel Aviv and Washington, and the United States will facilitate regional security arrangements, as well as increase intelligence, military and financial cooperation to add more missile defense batteries against Iranian missiles, meaning that Israel will try to strengthen its strategic and defense position .
The main dilemma that frames the course of the talks in Vienna, and may stop them, is the continued targeting of American forces in Iraq and Syria, and the American response to the overall targeting of its forces. In the same context, the International Atomic Energy Agency said that Iran had told it of its intention to enrich uranium by 20 percent to produce fuel. This step was condemned by the foreign ministers of Germany, France and Britain, as it is not in line with the course of the Vienna talks and suggests Iranian intransigence. The German Foreign Ministry spokesman also announced recently that Tehran requested stopping the Vienna talks because it needed time to consult internally before the start of the last round. .
This Iranian position suggests a desire to freeze the talks temporarily, prior to the seventh and final round, which was expected to start on the first of this July, and in parallel, the American forces in Iraq were targeted, and this means that Iran wanted to deliver messages to the United States, that it has an impact on the situation. Therefore, the Iranian strategy may be aimed at putting pressure on Washington and the Western parties, especially since Tehran stipulated obtaining guarantees from the United States that it would never withdraw from the agreement, which is a complicated matter according to the dynamics of American domestic politics.
It seems clear that Iran wants pressure from the United States on Israel to stop the attacks on Iranian targets at home and abroad. In general, Iran wants to revive the agreement, as well as Washington, but Washington and the Western powers are trying to make Iran understand that no matter how long and how long it takes The American desire was to reduce involvement in the Middle East, but it deals with the great powers that not only possess tools of force in all its forms, but also tools of pressure and sanctions, and what Washington sees as Iranian provocations, may lose the sympathy of other parties that sympathized with them in the face of intransigence American; Consequently, there are very intertwined and complex dilemmas, which makes the Vienna meetings, discussions and a path without milestones.