Militarization of the Red Sea A reading into the motives and implications of the new movements

italiatelegraph

Dr.Ali Juma Al-Obaidi

In the midst of the military deployment and international movements taking place in the Red Sea, it cannot be said that this development is surprising and unique following the events of October 7 2023, since the sea straits and waterways have always been a subject of political competition and conflict, especially in times of war. So, what if the region of interest is the Middle East in this case!? What if the aforementioned waterway is the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the location of which is characterized by a pivotal strategic and geopolitical importance, and through which 40% of the trade routes between Asia and Europe pass!?

Indeed, the waves of the Al-Aqsa flood arrived to hit the Bab al-Mandab Strait, after Yemen began launching successive attacks on cargo ships heading towards Israel or owned by companies affiliated with or supporting it, the first of which was on November 19 2023. The attacks continued and the threats to Sana’a from the United States increased under what the United States called “safety of commercial traffic in this sensitive sea way’’. This growing threat resulted in the United States, Israel’s first and strongest ally, announcing the launch of an international coalition of a maritime protection force that includes more than 10 countries, to support freedom of navigation in the Red Sea under the name “Guardian of Prosperity”. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that the goal of the alliance is to highlight the commitment of the United States and its allies to confront Iranian-backed threats in the region. This came after the United States and Israel described the Houthi attacks as acts of piracy and a threat to the safety of global navigation, to which a Yemeni official responded by saying that the attacks were “a valid step within a declared and legitimate military operation, in order to put political, strategic and military pressure on Israel to stop the war and lift the blockade.”

Here, a question may arise about the extent of the impact of the Yemeni attacks on Israel and its military operations in Gaza, and what are the real motives and implications of the formation of the “Guardian of Prosperity” coalition!? Certainly, the economic sect is the most affected in the Israeli side as a result of the Yemeni threat. Israeli media reported that marine traffic declined in the southern port of Eilat by 80%, after several shipping companies announced they were changing the course of their ships to avoid passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait. They instead resorted to circumnavigating the African continent through the Cape of Good Hope Strait to reach Israeli ports on the Mediterranean Sea, which increases the economic and time costs, negatively affecting the already war-torn Israeli economy.
The occupation entity is indirectly trying to portray that what is happening in the Red Sea will not affect it by claiming that only 5% of its trade passes through the port of Eilat on the Red Sea. However, those following the Israeli reactions to the Yemeni attacks in the Red Sea see the opposite, especially since all imports from Asia, specifically China, India and South Korea, reach the occupying entity via the Red Sea, and these imports can never be underestimated. If United States manufactures products in Asia and widely depends on it, so how about the occupying entity? Therefore, what Yemen is doing now is definitely a tool of pressure on Israel at all levels, whether economic and international, because the trade that will be delayed and the costs that will rise will force the countries that cooperate with it in Asia to pressure it.

As for the international coalition launched and led by the United States, the scene suggests that this initiative has a moral and strategic trajectory more than being a means to protect maritime navigation in the Red Sea. There is an international force already existing for the same purpose, called the “Joint Task Force 153”, which was formed in April 2022, and included 39 countries, namely the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the Emirates, Israel, and others, with the aim of combating “terrorist and smuggling activities” in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, as was officially announced. This indicates that the “Guardian of Prosperity” coalition came as a reaction and proof of the American presence in the midst of the ongoing conflict. It is a response to pressure from the Israeli ally, which sees the necessity of undertaking military movements that confirm the American and Israeli presence, and achieve the required deterrence in the face of Yemen’s threats. One of the indications of this goal is Israel’s sending of its newest warships – the Sa’ar 6 – to the Red Sea.

But what was striking in Operation Guardian of Prosperity was that despite the United States’ efforts to expand the alliance’s circle to the greatest extent, the alliance was only able to include more than approximately 10 countries, and the number could increase. Washington’s call to join the alliance collided with a general regional desire to reduce the escalation after the Al-Aqsa Flood Battle, and this explains the position of the countries that abstained from joining the new coalition, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the Emirates, even though they are active member states in the “Joint Task Force 153.” This position can be justified as their unwillingness to further escalate the situation. It threatens their security and stability, and these countries feared the possibility of straining their relations with Iran and its arms in the region, thus the refusal to participate in any possible escalation with Yemen. Especially Saudi Arabia, which saw the public approval to join the coalition as an obstacle to its negotiating efforts with Sana’a, after the peace negotiations between the two parties reached a good level and stopped the Yemeni bombing of Saudi lands with missiles and drones. That is coupled to Riyadh’s desire to continue improving relations with Tehran, after Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to resume their relations following the success of Chinese mediation between the two parties.

This weak international response to Operation “Guardian of Prosperity” also indicates an increase in international aversion and anger towards the American position of absolute and irresponsible support of Israel. Hence, an increase in the isolation of Washington’s position towards the war in Gaza, as indicated by the recent United Nations resolution that called for a humanitarian and immediate ceasefire on December 13. This witnessed the approval of 153 countries, while only 10 rejected the resolution, including the United States and Israel. A week before that, the United States had used its veto power against a similar draft resolution in the Security Council, in a scandalous scene that reinforced the moral decline of the United States, in front of the international community as expressed by American analysts.
We must know that the Yemeni position only concerns ships belonging to the occupying entity or heading to or from it, and therefore any other international ships can cross easily and without restrictions. Israel and the United States however, are trying to inflate the issue to mobilize the greatest support against Yemen. The American threats are not new or effective because it proves to be futile in this case. Will Washington frighten Sanaa which has been waging for 8 years? And it is no longer a secret that Yemen possesses missiles and drones that could greatly harm American ships, whether military or economic, and therefore whoever joins the alliance, will be exposed to the same danger.

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