“Difficult balance”… Al-Aqsa flood according to the Russian perspective.

italiatelegraph

Amjad Ismail Al-Agha / writer and political researcher

“Israel has the right to defend itself, but self-defense does not consist of killing civilians in the Gaza Strip.” This was confirmed by the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Mikhail Bogdanov, and this also confirms Russia’s attempts to achieve a difficult balance with Israel in its war against the Palestinians. It is clear that Russia still highly values its friendship with Israel, and in the same context, it does not forget part of its relationship with Iran, the most prominent supporter of the resistance movements in Palestine. It is a reality that resembles a tightrope on which Moscow is walking and is striving not to fall into the trap of alliances and preferences.

Since October 7, Moscow has been keen to present itself as a mediator of peace between the Israelis and Palestinians and blames the policies of the West that have led to the deterioration of Middle Eastern realities and sparked a new round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Politics definitely needs diplomatic demonstrations, as Russian officials began contacting their Arab counterparts, and Russia presented a draft resolution on a ceasefire in Palestine for humanitarian reasons, but the Russian decision clashed with the American veto.

Ten days since the beginning of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation were enough to prompt Putin to call Netanyahu, expressing his regret for the Israeli victims who died as a result of the flood of the Palestinian factions, and offering him condolences. However, in the same context, Russia refrained from describing the Al-Aqsa Flood operation as “terrorist,” as Russian media coverage of the war, the chapters of which reveal a clear pro-Palestinian tendency, and through Moscow’s emphasis on the necessity of putting an end to the suffering of the Palestinians, Moscow is thus seeking to attract political support for it, especially since the popular mood in the Middle East and even in the European Union countries has shown its clear embrace of grievances. The Palestinians, and therefore Moscow hopes to strengthen its regional and international position in the confrontation with the West.

No one denies that there is a Russian stumble in the context of the war with Ukraine, and in connection with this stumble, a new war in the Middle East, or at the very least a bloody round of conflict between Israel and Hamas, is realistically something that suits Vladimir Putin, as Moscow is trying to distance the West’s resources from Ukraine and focus them on it. In the Middle East in support of Israel, Russia will thus be able to catch its breath again and try to turn the balance in Ukraine. On the other hand, the increase in global pressure points and the Western-American distractions it creates from Russia may strengthen the Russian presence in multiple files, ensuring its return again and strongly to The multi-polar race, in which the Palestinian developments demonstrated that the United States still sits on the throne of the international system when it stood in support of Israel and warned everyone of any escalation that hinders the Israeli military operation against Hamas.

It is also likely that the state of instability in the Middle East, from the Russian perspective, may lead the West to adopt different approaches based on diverting the attention of Western countries from Ukraine. In the event of tensions, restrictions will naturally be imposed on the supply of weapons to Ukraine, as a result of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation and its aftermath. New developments and scenes in regional and international alignments. Saudi-Israeli normalization in such a reality has been postponed, and the anticipated peace process between Riyadh and Tel Aviv may be a strategic victim of the recent war between Israel and Hamas. Thus, Moscow will achieve a victory from the Russian point of view, which considered that the Abraham Accords It is a fragile American project that cannot be relied upon as a means of achieving stability in the region, especially with regard to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Israel, for its part, and in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war, remained hesitant to antagonize Russia, and Putin, for his part, does not want to distort the relationship with Netanyahu and wants to keep the relationship with him far from any tensions, even though Russian-Israeli relations have witnessed difficult periods over the past year and a half. , especially during the era of Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who took office for a short period from July to December 2022, but relations between the two countries remain close and strong, as they exchange trade and coordinate the activities of their air forces in Syria, and enjoy wide-ranging relations in the diaspora, apart from visiting members of the From the Hamas movement to Moscow, but Moscow realizes that any political support for Hamas may threaten Russian-Israeli relations, and may kill them, especially at this time.

Among the above, Russia must be careful in what it aspires to. It is true that the American-Western focus on the Middle East may provide a temporary benefit to Moscow, but it is also true that Russia does not want to see an Iranian-Israeli war, to which the Lebanese and Syrian arenas are automatically drawn, and the latter contains Russian military bases that help it extend its power in the eastern Mediterranean and Africa, and with its preoccupation With Moscow’s war in Ukraine, a Middle Eastern war may result in a conflagration that may affect Russian bases in Syria.

Russia, despite its positions in support of the Palestinians, in reality does not want to separate from Israel or antagonize it, and despite Russia’s common cause with Iran in challenging American influence regionally and internationally, Russian policy is originally based on achieving a balance between the opposing players in the Middle East, because this The balance, although difficult, increases Russian gains.

Small regional fires are better than a large regional war. It is a Russian rule that is being implemented at this time, in addition to a strategic rule of dealing with all the conflicting parties in Palestine. These two rules fall within the rules of the game that suit Moscow and through which geopolitical gains can be achieved. Until the scene is completed and new concepts for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict are defined (if the conflict remains), Russia will not In this American reality, it will not be able to determine the future course of events, and it will remain in the difficult balance between Iran and its axis, the United States, and Israel, to achieve its geopolitical interests.

italiatelegraph