The equation of geopolitical games worries Russia.

italiatelegraph

 

 

 

 

Amjad Ismail Agha

 

 

It is clear that Russian concerns and fears stem from the colored revolutions in the countries of the former Soviet Union, which still constitute in the Moscow strategic system, a dimension of special sensitivity for the Russian decision-maker, and these Russian concerns are translated realistically, as the beginning was in Georgia in 2003 , and in Ukraine in 2004, in Kyrgyzstan in 2005, and before a while in Kazakhstan, especially since all of these arenas are ideal theaters for harassing Moscow by its strategic opponents, and at the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin realizes that there is a change in the dynamics of conflicts Geopolitics, and specifically about spheres of influence. As a result, Putin considers that all countries in Russia’s vicinity are part of his country’s geography and its back garden, and on the other hand, they are stadiums that can be exploited politically, and are employed and invested in multiple files, which are a cause of scattering. Putin’s papers, and draining him politically and economically, and because Putin is aware of these facts, and because he knows very well, that there is a regional conflict in the region, with Russia and the West, Russia and Turkey, as well as Russia and the United States, with Russian-Chinese interests conflicting. In some details, specifically those related to the Silk Road, and the huge Chinese financial investments, so he is trying to establish alliances, organizations, and security and military treaties with the countries of the Russian periphery, which in their content constitute a cover for him to intervene militarily in them, and to focus his dominance over them in the event of disturbances, in order to cut the road Others who are considering investing turmoil have to put pressure on him.

From here it became clear that the birth of the Collective Security Organization, which includes Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, constitutes a Russian equation within the geopolitical games, and based on that equation, the Russian forces were pushed to enter Kazakhstan, and engineer a reality that Moscow deems necessary within the series of games that It is woven against it and in its surroundings, and accordingly, it has become understandable, the statement of John Bolton, the former US National Security Adviser, when he commented on the Russian intervention in Kazakhstan, by saying, that the intervention is a stage of the return of the areas of influence of the Soviet Union to Russia, and in the same context, the factors and their summaries that make From the Russian neighboring countries, a red line in front of Moscow’s opponents, but it stems from geographical determinants, especially since the Russian neighboring countries constitute soft sides of Moscow, which facilitates the transfer of turmoil, chaos and instability to the depth of Russian lands, just as Moscow does not It can ignore the historical dimension, as there is a large proportion of the population in these countries of Russian origin, which gives a space of freedom to those who say that it belongs to Russian lands, including Putin personally who said in previous statements, there was no country Name it Kazakhstan before the collapse of the Soviet Union, and some Russian deputies went even further in saying that Kazakhstan is a gift from the Soviet Union to them. All of this gives us a clear view and a deep picture of what is going on in the political scenes in Moscow, and the nature of the perception of the countries around the Russian Federation.

On the other hand, regardless of the nature and nature of the internal events in the countries of the former Soviet Union, the common denominator, which frames any event in those countries, stems from a specific reading that has no second, based on the fact that the West, and specifically NATO, are trying to open fronts against Moscow, and accordingly, Putin, based on what he sees as security for his strategic depth, finds no alternative but to pressure the governments of those countries, from the perspective of the intersection of interests, to launch the accusation of the external factor, and then ask for help from Moscow by bringing in Russian forces, to give the impression to the international community, that his intervention legitimate, as well as in order for the intervention to be compatible with the conditions of the Organization for Security Cooperation, and this in its entirety is legitimate, especially since Washington is always trying to engineer scenes that trouble Moscow, and work in the equation of restrictions on Russian policies, and perhaps bartering with Moscow in the context of multiple files, and Moscow does not She likes the American attempts to dominate the countries of the former Soviet Union, which Moscow views with the eye of its strategic depth.

In depth, Moscow’s classification of Russian national security begins at the borders of the countries of the former Soviet Union, and not only at the borders of Russia; This vision prompted Moscow to move against the color revolutions in its surroundings, and with Moscow realizing the impossibility of turning back the clock and producing a new Soviet system similar to the previous one, a return is possible in the Russian political mind, by engineering regional political and economic blocs with the countries of the immediate surroundings. In which the security factor plays a prominent role.

The elite of the above, Russia does not have, from its strategic perspective, the challenges of wars and does not move towards them, although it is adept at displaying the strength of its military arsenal, but at the same time, it has more painful cards, for the West and Washington alike, hence the security threat to Europe, which is considered An option with golden advantages. We have seen, for example, the recent refugee crisis between Belarus and the European Union, which was supported by Putin, as well as going too far in the alliance with China in the Central Asian countries. Nevertheless, the obsession that haunts Russian politicians remains, It is the fear of the West, who, in ancient and modern times, believe that they want to swallow part of their land.

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