Amjad Ismail Al-Agha
Within the main framework of the analysis of the new American era led by Joseph Biden, we must start from a part based on the content that President-elect Biden is a typical expression of institutional work in US politics, especially if we take into account his work as a parliamentarian and vice president of Barack Obama, the matter Which gives us a clear idea of Biden, who is considered a clear example of the centrist bloc and balance in American society, and on the other hand, this balance will also force Biden to respond in some internal issues as well as regional and international files, for what the leftist bloc that played a major role in reaching White House.
In this sense, it has become clear that the traditional mechanisms of the role of decision-making institutions in Washington will return to their vitality and effectiveness again, which indicates that most of the upcoming policies and directions are expected in many areas, in addition to that the electoral program that Biden approved during his candidacy for the presidency suggests a certain extent. The headlines of the upcoming presidential term and their general frameworks, with partial determinants of those titles being set in line with the general approach of the US strategy at the regional and international levels.
As a result, Biden is expected to start with policies that would restore cohesion and strengthen NATO, while setting steps to resolve many thorny issues such as the relationship with Russia, and this means, in one of the parts, the rapid return to the traditional partnership between Washington and the European Union, as well as the possibility of gradual rapprochement and understandings in How to deal with Iran and other files such as North Korea, as the competition with China will continue, but in a cautious manner that does not threaten global stability, provided that the international presence of China does not escalate, which needs some time to be monitored and refuted in this regard. Within the above, it seems clear that Biden will work to restore the alliance with Europe, and to engineer the bonds of rapprochement between them.
On the other hand, Russia’s confrontation in the Middle East remains one of the most difficult and complex issues, and it should be noted whether Biden was willing to pursue a policy that encourages stability and rapprochement with Russia as well as China, especially when he comes from the arms of the American establishment, and has been known for decades of his work. In Washington on several occasions, with the support of imperial policies that lack legal basis, such as encouraging him to invade Iraq. Thus, we can say that what is not entirely clear is the change Biden will make in terms of foreign policy, especially in the files of the Middle East and relations with China and Russia.
On a parallel side, the Biden administration will not keep the cover that Donald Trump provided to some Gulf states as well as Arab countries, and may resort to a more strict approach in holding regimes such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE accountable for their human rights violations. Biden may be firm in terms of working to end the tragedy of the war in Yemen, but despite this, the perceptions related to the possibility of working to bring down the regimes in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt are misconceptions, as these countries are still in the US strategy an implementation tool for all American policies. On the other hand, there is an absence of any indications that Biden will make a fundamental change in the US policy towards Syria, even in Iran, which has been waiting eagerly to defeat Trump, but in this regard, Biden is not expected to return to the nuclear agreement without prior negotiations on amendments to it. And it does not seem that he will rush to lift sanctions on Iran before reaching a new agreement.
The most ambiguous issue is undoubtedly the position of Biden on Turkey. Earlier, an audio tape of an interview that Biden conducted at the end of last year with editors from the New York Times was leaked, during which Biden attacked the administration of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and promised to work to change it. Although doubts surrounded the nature of traditional American political talk with liberal journalists, and whether Biden really meant what he said, Biden certainly carries perceptions about the future of the Middle East that are of concern to many in the region, including Turkey. Biden believes “for example.” That federalism is the best solution to the issues of the conflicts of nationalities and sects in the Middle East, and bears a known sympathy for the Kurdish question. But President Biden may not necessarily coincide with Biden, the Senator or the political public figure; This makes his position on the Kurdish file and relations with Turkey the main force in the balance equation with Russia in the Middle East, the Balkans and the Caucasus, open to all possibilities.
It is important to remember that the Biden administration will not abandon Israel in any way, but will work concretely for the survival of the Palestinian Self-Government Authority. What is certain is that the Biden administration’s position on the Israeli settlements files and their legitimacy, and the related Israeli policy of annexation, support for UNRWA, and the future of negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis, will determine the Biden administration’s position on the entire Palestinian issue, within that the talk about the so-called “deal of the century” may gradually disappear. And a new resumption of the two-state idea may take place, but the most important question will remain, what does the new US administration have in the Palestinian file in light of the many restrictions imposed by Trump?
There is no great controversy about Biden’s domestic priorities, especially since the United States is still witnessing a rapid escalation in the rates of Covid-19 infection. What the Biden administration will urgently work on internally, in terms of developing a strategy to deal with the epidemic and with its economic effects on a broad segment of the two classes, Working and middle. Otherwise, Biden will have to try to satisfy the left of the Democratic Party, which lined up around him and worked for him effectively throughout the election campaign, especially on issues of health, work and education, putting an end to the climate of racial discrimination, and targeting Afro-Americans, Muslims, and Hispanics. However, Biden assuming his presidential powers will not put an end to “Trumpism”, because the existence of political Trumpism is closely linked to the division of the American people, which seems to continue for some time. Perhaps Trump will return during the next four years a heavy ghost, haunting the Biden administration in every little and every major policy.
The finest words, many people think of how Biden’s general orientations will turn into actual, concrete policies? Based on that, we can say that the realization and implementation of Biden’s policies to become a reality, this will depend to a large extent on the personalities he will choose for the positions of defense, national security and politics institutions. And the size of the role that the vice president will play, given Biden’s advanced age, and the surprises the Biden administration will face in a rapidly changing and transforming world.
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