Amjad Ismail Agha
A Russian poker game, whose hero is Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has taken a clear path in terms of adopting the option of war against Ukraine, which can be placed in a clear challenge to the American and Western wills, who in turn are trying to frame the Russian options, by waving sanctions, to increase the cost of any military adventure. , similar to what happened in Georgia and Crimea.
Vladimir Putin put the military option on his list of priorities, not because diplomatic options were exhausted and failed to achieve Russian interests, so he resorted to force in order to extract what he wanted. However, it seems that Putin was pushed to the option of war by the West, which closed the door to settlements with Moscow early, In the same context, it can be said that the Russians and the West were pushed together in this direction, after they raised the ceiling of their conditions. For Moscow, the decision to war became less harmful than the decision to retreat, and for the West, confrontation became less harmful than meeting Moscow’s unrealistic demands, according to the descriptions of European politicians.
In the same context, it is too early to say that Putin fell into the Ukrainian trap, even though the war decision included in some of its parts signs of Russian haste, but in depth, and in terms of preemptive steps, the war decision constituted in substance and content, a Western American obstruction of pressure towards Moscow, which will give Putin more time, in order to impose a major change in the realities on the ground, and link them to what he wants politically, but despite the absence of the United States, the European Union and NATO, Putin does not seem militarily motivated to take advantage of his opportunity and resolve the battle early.
Evidence for the above, and within the strategy of wars, Putin avoids engaging in urban warfare, as he knows very well that entering Kyiv will have results that Moscow may not bear. He also refuses to take the lives of civilians in Kyiv, or any other city, and the occupation of the mother capital of the Slavic race, and the cradle of his church and its destruction, will make a settlement with any Ukrainian authority imposed by Moscow impossible in the future, and it will be faced with popular rejection, and will strengthen the division between some parties in the East And the rest of the Ukraine, this akin to a civil war.
From here it becomes clear, the Russian leadership’s bet on the Ukrainian army, to avoid falling into a tactical and strategic minefield. The Russian predicament will expand if the decision is delayed, especially if the capital Kyiv holds out, or the Russians are forced to enter it by force, which means that the army will not surrender and will fight its battles in defense of the cities Ukraine, which makes what Moscow calls a tactical victory more like a strategic defeat. Occupying Kyiv without controlling all of the Ukrainian territory, will allow the Ukrainian army to maintain areas under the sovereignty of the state, and this may push Moscow to the decision of full occupation, which requires a long time and high material cost.
Within the foregoing, it can be said that the dilemma of Ukraine lies in the geography that was imposed on it, to be the victim of an endless cycle of conflicts. The Cuban threat to the United States, during the Cold War.
Consequently, Ukraine’s tragedy also lies in its lack of sense of the Western countries’ readiness to protect it enough, as it criticizes the obstacles placed in front of its desire to join NATO or provide it with advanced weapons systems. And here he is strong, what was said by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview with La Repubblica newspaper, who accused Germany in particular, which, according to him, is preventing the delivery of defensive weapons to his country. “Recently, Germany prevented us from acquiring shipments of anti-aircraft guns and anti-sniper systems in the framework of cooperation with NATO, which are purely defensive weapons,” he said, explaining.
In conclusion, it does not seem that the snow will last more than a few weeks, to show the meadow clearly.
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