Amjad Ismail Agha
We do not escape the truth if we say that the ABCs of the political and military conflict in and over Syria, framed by regional and international poles, have imposed a special pattern in terms of dealing with the details of the Syrian file and its complex and complex scenes, in addition to the challenges that have been addressed and are still the Syrian scene at all levels, put all The concerned and active parties in the Syrian issue, within the context of no retreat from the set of interests in Syrian geography, always focusing on imposing strategic visions associated with the crystallization of a new regional and international order, as a result, the Syrian file is becoming increasingly complex and intertwined, between the conflicting forces within the borders of geography. Syria, especially that the geopolitical position of Syria was the reason for the intersection of the interests of the majority of regional and international powers, which made Damascus vulnerable to political, economic and military bargains, with a clear absence of a Syrian strategy, which puts allies and political opponents, in front of a Syrian reality in substance and content; All of this made the role of Damascus “or almost” absent from influencing the links of interests and engineering alignments, to develop sustainable solutions for all scenes of the Syrian file.
Recently, disputed files between Washington and Moscow have increased, which has translated political and military tensions in multiple conflict arenas, and perhaps what is happening in the Syrian geography is the best evidence of the repercussions that are generated by the political friction between Washington and Moscow. The Syrian government takes us to what can be called the gray positions of Moscow and Washington. The planned American withdrawal from Syria seems so far unrealistic, as American statements in this context are not consistent with the political and military moves regulating the new American strategy in Syria, as well as Moscow and its gray positions. Also, as despite all the Russian statements regarding the Syrian issue, they are statements that translate into the depth of the new American trends towards Syria, as the Russian statements regarding American policies in Syria still take an ineffective political character in the context of any development that ends the crisis, and puts An end to the state of interactions at all levels between the majority of regional and international powers, which confirms the dimension of interests between the two parties and their intersection in many aspects, and the exploitation of the current situation. Suri as a bargaining chip in other files.
The reality of the situation confirms that US President Joe Biden, since he took over the US administration, has clearly demonstrated the American coldness in the Syrian file, and this foreshadowed a change in the American strategy, which is heading towards making Syria a negative bargaining chip with Biden with the rest of the parties, in order to win Other files in non-Syrian conflict arenas, and perhaps this explains the American ambiguity in the policy towards Syria, which developed into the beginning of bias by Washington, which is currently moving towards managing the Syrian crisis rather than resolving it, in order to calm down with Moscow on the one hand, and the success of the nuclear negotiations with Tehran on the one hand. On the other hand.
In parallel, and further complicating the Syrian file, US President Joe Biden signed Bill 1605 to authorize the national defense for the 2022 fiscal year, which included several points related to Syria, including allocating an amount of 177 million dollars to units fighting against ISIS, the part goes The largest of them is to the SDF, as the project called in one of its clauses, to investigate the wealth of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family, within a period not exceeding 120 days, and to evaluate the efforts of the United States to prevent normalization with the Syrian government, in addition to preventing Syria’s return to the Arab League; All of this explicitly confirms that the American attempts are aimed at impeding any political progress in Syria, and at the same time, embarrassing Moscow.
In fact, reaching a political agreement to end the Syrian crisis will only take place through direct US-Russian negotiations, in which many files are discussed in different regions, so that the solution to the Syrian crisis is within the framework of a comprehensive deal between the two superpowers over areas of influence around the world, and with difficulty This scenario has been achieved and there is no precedent in support of it. Other alternatives can be considered, including inviting the influential parties, especially the United States and Russia, to start discussing only one file at the current stage, and let the Idlib file and the future of the armed groups be there, so that if consensus is reached on it Gradually remove other files.
Undoubtedly, the international consensus on this file will spare the region many complications, and will lead to the exclusion of the scenario of the Syrian state using military force to regain Idlib, while working under the cover of the Security Council, which urges countries to fight terrorism and classifies Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organization. On the other hand, the presence of an international consensus on Idlib will encourage the Syrian state to take positive steps on the political track, and thus resolve other files, such as economic sanctions, reconstruction, and other files that negatively affect the whole Syrian scene.
In conclusion, and in view of the foregoing, Russia realizes that the American attempts, which Washington and the alliance it leads will not be able to turn back time, are aimed at thwarting the course of resolving the Syrian crisis, and prolonging the state of no war and no peace. From here, the insistence of Moscow and Damascus is understood. However, the United States’ exit from Syria is considered the most important step in the settlement path, and Washington’s insistence, on the other hand, to perpetuate the entry of aid across the border, and to confront Russia’s efforts to confine it through Damascus, with the aim of ensuring the continuity of existing entities, and the preservation of the current situation as it is; All of this leads directly to the dilution of the political solution in Syria, preventing the opening of loopholes in the Syrian file, and keeping it suspended.
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