Amjad Ismail Agha
What is being done by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in northeastern Syria is no longer the focus of discussion, as it has become clear that the Turkish policy in Idlib in particular stems from clear determinants, according to which Erdogan seeks to keep it as a track for his Ottoman dreams and expansion plans, especially Erdogan’s motives have become clear in content and goals throughout the geography of northern Syria, and in the same context, most of the maneuvers, in their political and military dimensions, that Erdogan is engineering in Idlib, also no longer need to contemplate, and read the new data and facts, to form an image through which, Understanding and awareness, motives, goals and Erdogan in the Turkish-occupied Syrian city.
Erdogan bases his determinants to justify his expansionist policy towards Idlib, on the claim that Idlib represents a strategic gateway for Ankara, and preserving it within the current reality is a protection for Turkish national security, and thus the Syrian state cannot be allowed to work to restore the occupied city, for security and strategic imperatives, which he sees Erdogan and his political theorists are a wall of support in Ankara’s strategy against Damascus, but on the other hand, Erdogan will not be able to rely on his illusions and expansionist plans towards Idlib, even if the political understandings with the poles of Astana, Russia and Iran, have secured him a political margin to maneuver through it. However, within the hypothetical and de facto scenarios, the new paths at the regional level will impose new political formulas towards resolving the Idlib file.
In connection with the foregoing, the interests and the fan of regional alignments, as well as the transformations between states, especially those involved and influential in the Syrian issue, all require new approaches, which presuppose dealing in ways different from what was adopted in the versions of Astana and the Sochi understandings, especially since the political outcomes of the understandings The Russian-Turkish, no longer fit as the basis for a political solution, and these understandings are no longer able to meet the wishes of Damascus, or convince it, that the actors of these understandings may bring about changes in the Idlib file, as Damascus realizes, that what is happening in Idlib, cannot be tolerated. , or dealing with it according to political mechanisms, or denouncing statements, and waiting for the help of allies, as what governs the Turkish relationship with Russia and Iran can not only be viewed through the Syrian gate, but rather they are strategic partners, and they have deep economic relations, but on the other hand, What is happening in Idlib, and the deepening of the Turkification policy, puts the ball in the Russian and Iranian court, and their understandings with Turkey, which Erdogan is good at evading those agreements, raises many questions about Russian and Iranian policies towards Idlib.
In addition, Erdogan’s motives in Idlib are consistent with his political, military and security efforts to preserve Idlib as a hostage to realize his illusions of establishing an Islamic emirate that swims in his space and translates his dreams, and despite all the understandings and agreements with the Russian side, regarding Idlib occupied by Erdogan’s army and his mercenaries, From time to time, he always evades commitments and pledges, which must be translated into reality, and with their true translation, the beginning of the end will be the Turkish military presence in Idlib. From here it is understood that Erdogan’s policies come within the framework of blowing up all understandings with Russia, which allows him to continue in Delusions related to his expansion project.
What is happening in Idlib is summed up in clear terms, which is that Turkey explicitly says that its strategic interests in Idlib are more important than the Russian and Iranian interests with Damascus, and accordingly, Turkey places its relations with Russia and Iran within the framework of the Idlib equation, and any military deterioration in the Idlib file , will put the relationship between Ankara, Tehran and Moscow into a political bargain, as despite the copies of Astana and the Sochi understandings, Idlib is still far from the path of political understandings, while turning a blind eye to all Turkish practices in Idlib, by Moscow and Tehran. It is clear from the context of developments in Idlib that Erdogan’s equation has been successful so far, with evidence that Turkey is maintaining the confrontation between it and Syria.
The best of the above, all the current facts, with their political and military dimensions, make it imperative for the Syrian state to embark on the option of a military confrontation. It is true that the Syrian state has been burdened by years of war, and a series of complex political and economic crises, but it is also true that Damascus, in its orientation towards Idlib, is based on the centrality of its duty towards the Turkish-occupied city, and military imperatives that require ending all aspects of the Turkish occupation and its addresses throughout northern Syria, Thus, Damascus will be able to turn the page on the war and end its forms, addresses, effects and catastrophic results. Therefore, Damascus realizes that procrastination and hesitation in dealing with this file is not in its interest, neither in terms of circumstances nor in terms of time, as it also realizes that Idlib remains a side. Attrition, which will have huge repercussions on the entire Syrian scene.
But between Erdogan’s political motives and the Syrian state’s military necessities, there are diplomatic means that would end the status quo in Idlib in the interest of the sovereignty of the Syrian state, regardless of Erdogan’s concerns about Idlib, in terms of losing a key pillar in his expansion project; However, the inevitability of a broad military confrontation remains inevitable if diplomatic and political means with Turkey fail, especially since all personal calculations of Recep Tayyip Erdogan do not concern the Syrian state, when the moment comes to liberate Turkey’s occupied Idlib.