Amjad Ismail Al-Agha
Despite the tremendous international support for the Kurds in their orientations, the complex nature of their regional relations does not allow them to establish a network of alliances that may produce internal stability in their areas of presence, which in their terms constitute the beginning of an independent entity in eastern Syria, as the array of options and papers that were in the hands of the SDF began to disappear. In view of the political and field developments imposed by the active forces in northeastern Syria; As a result, an influential factor emerged in this regard, which is the regional and international position on the separatist orientations of the SDF, as well as a heavy newcomer who exhausted them and put them in the limited options, as the American statements do not coincide with what the SDF wants in the future, especially since the American trends determined the compass of options towards Syria. And, in a further goal, it seems that the American statements regarding the non-continuation of the protection of oil fields by the American forces, establish a deep foundation for a Russian-American partnership that organizes the beginnings of a shy political solution, regardless of the faint Russian statements about US policies in Syria, but the determinants and parts of the solution start from A participatory principle is necessary, and both parties see it as a strategic necessity.
However, on the other hand, the complications and contradictions that frame the scene in northeastern Syria, relied on its consequences for the way to deal with the Kurdish file in general and the Qasd in particular, in this atmosphere, Washington realized that continuing to play on the contradictions of the Turkish position regarding the SDF’s orientations will bring them into the Atlantic with Turkey. The context of deep contentious issues, and this matter will increase the divergence between what unites the American and the Turkish regarding regional and international issues, which cannot be far from the influence of Ankara. On the other hand, there is an American strategic dimension represented by the continued use of the Qasd card, and the pressures it poses through which political gains may be passed through, and between the American trends and Turkish concerns, the Qasd has lost the influencing factor in the political tracks, and as a natural result of the developments of the Syrian crisis, the Qasd found that It is imperative to open a dialogue with Damascus, but it is a dialogue that will only be an extension and a path governed by many factors of failure, starting with American desires, and not ending with Turkish affection that is in harmony with the American approaches towards Qasd, and in line with the Turkish plan in the depth of the Syrian geography.
Within the above, accelerated developments emerged, which in its parts constituted a pressure factor on the SDF, whose options have become very limited. Regardless of the path of future developments that will be imposed by the American trends, it seems that the new US strategy for the Middle East as a whole puts Qasd before major questions, as their concerns have become. Centered on the American role in search of understandings that would satisfy Turkey. All this has entered Qasd in the vortex of open questions that need to be answered with certainty.
On a parallel side, it became clear that the idea of establishing a Kurdish region in northern Syria is no longer up for discussion, and if a safe area in eastern Syria is actually established and subject to Turkish influence, then it is certain that the entire Syrian east will be within the range of Turkish goals, which are paved at a later stage to Including the Turkish state, within this given, the Qasd will have only two options, the first is cooperation with Turkey and indulging in its plans, and this is an unlikely option due to many reasons related to the historical bloody relationship between the Kurds and Turkey, and the second is to return to Damascus and hand over all their papers, and this option seems closer. To deal according to mechanisms and conditions governed by Damascus’s desires to take possession of the Qasd card. The Kurds ’experiences have shown that developments far from their orientation may put them in a new impasse. Consequently, the necessities, in their political and military dimensions, put Qasd before the part of going towards Damascus, and within that, it must be necessary. Damascus’s dealings with the Qasd according to the logic of common interests, which is far from exclusion, and thus only a new equation is woven in form and content, and at the same time establishing a political case that forms the starting point for a broad political solution, which will lead to the achievement of many Positive results for all Syrian parties, as it has become necessary, according to the above facts and developments, that there be political reviews by both Damascus and the SDF, in order to reach necessary results in the coming days.
With sympathy for the set of variables that have characterized the Syrian theater in all its dimensions, they are most in need of a dialogue with Damascus, regardless of the problems surrounding the scene in northeastern Syria, which is also framed by Russian-Turkish understandings and implicitly in Syria, but there are three issues that place Qasd at a historical turning point. It may not be repeated, and it also puts it before the truth, which is the necessity of dialogue with Damascus; They are issues that can be rented out as follows:
First – With regard to the areas under the control of the Qasd that contain multiple segments, there have recently emerged protest movements resulting from the way the SDF deals with the rest of the segments, and therefore it has become imperative for them to deal more positively with the various components in their areas of control, and to change their course by heading to Damascus to set the stage. A road map that guarantees all components access to social and administrative services.
Second – It is noticeable that there is no international response to the issue of federalism of the Kurds, and even the American ally, their most prominent ally, does not want political pressure towards this issue, but Washington, through its political evasiveness, only wants to use this paper to pressure the Syrian state and Russia, so it is necessary for the SDF to realize It is a pressure card in the hands of the Americans, and it is certain that sooner or later they will be abandoned within the major settlements.
Third – The observer of the developments in the Syrian issue has become aware that the SDF has lost confidence in their American ally, especially that Washington has failed them more than once and on more than one occasion, and therefore there must be a turn towards the Syrian state, as it is able to guarantee their rights and security, in light of the tensions and complications that will not be Absolutely in the interest of the SDF if they continue to pursue the policy of searching for power cards, to be used at any negotiation table.
In conclusion, long-term Russian-American understandings regarding Syria may be translated into a consensual political title, regardless of the bulk of political terms in the form of federalism and decentralization, and other forms of solutions, but there is an international consensus on the safety and unity of the Syrian territories, and therefore all developments and facts are what is hidden From them and what appeared, they will be according to a new political mechanism, not exclusionary, with determinants set for the future Syria, especially since the Syrian state and the political and military achievements it established will have a balanced political price, this is from the logic of wars and their ABCs, and this is the path that the Qasd must realize, And at the same time, the political scene must be read according to a new perspective, and accordingly, Damascus has the lion’s share in any upcoming political solution, with full awareness that what was prevalent and known months ago, will not be the same in the coming days, so political reviews and reading the scene from its different angles For all the influential forces in the Syrian file, as well as Damascus, it has become necessary to get out of the furnace of war and salvage what can be saved.