Russia and the necessity of a political solution in Syria .. Strategic determinants.

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Written by .. Amjad Ismail Al-Agha

Carefully accurate strategy and long-range characterization. The former US envoy to Syria James Jeffrey reiterated earlier that he worked throughout his service for Syria to be a quagmire for the Russians, as long as they do not take US policy into account. Describing a “quagmire” may be far-fetched, to be taken as an American means and strategy to drown Russia into the Syrian geography and drain it politically and militarily, but the American administration may be able to pursue policies to tighten the siege on Russia in Syria, as the issue is not limited to the American military presence in northeastern Syria, Not on the vocabulary of Caesar’s law that follows and besieges all those allied with the Syrian state. Rather, there is an American project that explicitly states the cancellation of any legitimacy for the Syrian state, and in this way Washington may initially succeed in closing all Russian attempts to achieve a political solution, through a path that began since the Astana option, and not ended with a conference Refugees in Damascus, which was boycotted by the countries of the world due to the American rejection.

It is clear that the American decision-maker always recommends following the same American policy in Syria, as the complexities of the American situation in Syria and Iraq, in addition to the cautious relationship with Turkey, all of this will not impose a positive change in the political sense towards Russia, and as a result of these complications, Washington will resort to following A hard-line policy against Moscow in more than one place in the world, and this naturally depends on the policy of Joe Biden and the Democrats in general.

It is important to note that the policies of the great countries do not change easily, and therefore Trump did not change Obama’s policies much, especially with regard to Syria, and Biden will not do either, and this does not negate the fact that many data have changed in the world during the past four years, as well as during the Obama era. Therefore, there is a partial change that will include Syria in the time of Biden, and will not be in favor of the Russians, which could put Russia in “yours”.

Within the above, there are two main issues that are focused on, and on the other hand, they raised the ire of most regional and international powers, as the conference for the return of refugees in Damascus, as well as the Syrian presidential elections next summer, revealed the size of the challenges that frame the Syrian file. In addition, developments in the situation in Syria and the conflicting interests of regional and international powers should be added. But within those scenes, there is a special scene that is being engineered in Damascus, indicating that a settlement is being prepared for harvesting, as the Syrian state realizes that Russia, Iran, and even the majority of regional and international forces active and influential in the Syrian issue are not charitable societies, and geopolitical interests in Syria must be shared. For Russia has the majority of investments in the Syrian economy, Iran has large sectors of it, and Turkey has a full market in northern Syria, as well as for the Americans, where the benefits of the Syrian island are.

Russia, as a strategic ally of the Syrian state, wanted to send a message to the American administration, that the political system in Syria is a legitimate one, but bold steps must be taken by the Syrian state, in the context of a political solution that satisfies the regional and international forces active and influential in the Syrian file, but without Infringing on the unity of Syria and its territorial integrity, as settlements are governed from the Russian point of view by strategic imperatives that come in the formulas of the return of Syrian refugees, and the drafting of a new constitution that will lift a new political stage in Syria, as well as through the settlement with Turkey, leading to the presidential elections scheduled for the summer of 2021. From all this, it wants to reach a political settlement in Syria while framing the American attempts that take sanctions as a basis for tampering with the nature and structure of any future political solution, and this is what Turkey and Iran will not object to.

In the same context, America does not reject what Russia is trying to engineer, and confirms that its conditions are related to removing Iranian forces and returning to Resolution 2254, and fighting terrorism, and that any step by the Syrian state towards that will be met by America by step, and this is the message of the Americans to the Russians, and here is a strong advisor’s statement. Former US national security John Bolton said, “The United States will not leave Syria unless Iran does so first.”

But on the other hand, Russia has taken Iran as a partner that it focuses on in Syria, and does not want Iran to leave the Syrian geography, which can be read in the context of forming an alignment that would reduce the American recklessness in Syria, and this also explains the delay of the political solution in Syria according to The American vision, for those contradictions, in their depth and broad address, to be the gateway to new laws that are cooked slowly, and a tougher American blockade against the Syrian state and its allies, with the aim of forcing the Syrian state and its allies to make some concessions that Washington sees as the necessities and determinants of resolving the Syrian file.

The conflict between the great powers cannot be portrayed in the manner of the struggle between the authorities of the backward countries. It is not conceivable that America is placing conditions on Russia, but in this sense, America will leave Syria to Russia provided that it adheres to the American conditions, and in the event that it does not observe this, then there is hardening and a gradual entry into complications that may be prolonged, where there is no reconstruction, no floating of the Syrian state, nor Russia can reap the fruits of its policies in Syria, and tighten the sanctions of the Caesar Act and other sanctions across America and the European Union, and now there are indications that additional sanctions will face the Syrian state, and the sanctions may include the Russian presence in Syria as a whole.

All of the above is understood by Russia and the Syrian state accepted it, and it is not possible in any way to imagine that in the agenda of Damascus and its partners any concession made to the American, but what can be read clearly is that Russia seeks a political solution and is working to strengthen its vocabulary through economic projects that establish an equation that goes beyond laws. But in the same context, the American lack of urgency to reach and reach a political solution puts the sticks in the wheels of the expected settlement, which Damascus, Moscow and Tehran are working to formulate.

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