Altaf Moti
Pakistan
For years, New Delhi has cultivated the image of a “Vishwaguru” (world teacher), expertly balancing competing global powers while championing the Global South. The guiding doctrine was “strategic autonomy”—the ability to engage with all sides without being beholden to any. However, 2025 has brutally exposed the limitations of this approach. What was once hailed as diplomatic dexterity is now increasingly viewed by global capitals as transactional aloofness. As the year draws to a close, Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces a sobering reality: India is more isolated than it has been in a decade.
The Western Illusion Crumbles
The most significant rupture of 2025 has been the rapid cooling of ties with the United States. For years, Washington overlooked New Delhi’s democratic backsliding and protectionist economics, betting on India as a counterweight to China. That bet has soured under the new geopolitical realities of 2025.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House has stripped away the diplomatic pleasantries. The imposition of hefty tariffs on Indian goods—retaliation for India’s digital services tax and protectionist barriers—has hit the Indian economy hard. Unlike previous administrations that prioritized strategic partnership over trade disputes, the current U.S. approach is strictly transactional. The diplomatic fallout is not just economic; it is strategic. Washington’s renewed engagement with Pakistan and its criticism of India’s continued purchase of Russian energy signal a loss of India’s “exceptional” status in American foreign policy.
Simultaneously, the diplomatic crisis with Canada has festered into a permanent sore. What began as allegations regarding the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar has snowballed into a broader reputational crisis. The recent lawsuit by a Canadian border officer, alleging he was framed by Indian disinformation, has kept the issue in the global headlines. New Delhi’s dismissive response—characterizing these concerns as mere political pandering by Ottawa—has failed to convince Western intelligence communities, who see a pattern of extraterritorial aggression that contradicts India’s claims of being a rule-abiding democracy.
Neighborhood “First” No More
Closer to home, the “Neighborhood First” policy lies in tatters. The collapse of the Sheikh Hasina regime in Bangladesh was a catastrophic intelligence and diplomatic failure for New Delhi. By placing all its chips on a single, increasingly unpopular leader, India alienated the Bangladeshi public.
The interim government in Dhaka, led by Muhammad Yunus, has been treated with a cold shoulder by New Delhi, a move that is widely interpreted as petulance rather than prudence. While Indian media amplifies narratives of minority persecution in Bangladesh, New Delhi has shown little appetite for constructive engagement with the new power centers in Dhaka. This void is being rapidly filled by other players, including Pakistan and China, effectively encircling India with indifferent or hostile neighbors.
The Maldives remains another lost cause, with Male steadily drifting into Beijing’s orbit. The recurring theme across South Asia in 2025 is clear: India is seen not as a benevolent big brother, but as a meddlesome hegemon that cannot tolerate political dissent in its backyard.
The Russian Albatross
Perhaps the most glaring evidence of India’s strategic cul-de-sac is the continued embrace of Vladimir Putin. The Russian President’s visit to India in December 2025 was projected by Indian state media as a triumph of independent foreign policy. In reality, it highlighted India’s dwindling options.
While the West tightens the economic noose around Moscow, New Delhi’s decision to deepen energy and trade ties with Russia is no longer viewed as “neutrality.” It is seen as actively underwriting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. This has alienated European partners who were previously willing to cut India some slack. The “bear hug” with Putin does not signal strength; it signals a desperate need for energy security and defense spares, regardless of the reputational cost. It reinforces the narrative that India is a spoiler in the international rules-based order, interested only in short-term gain.
The Hollow Leadership of the Global South
Finally, India’s self-anointed role as the “Voice of the Global South” has faced a credibility crisis. Rhetoric aside, New Delhi’s capacity to deliver material benefits to developing nations remains limited compared to China’s deep pockets.
More damaging, however, is the perception of hypocrisy. On critical issues like the crisis in Gaza, India’s alignment has tilted visibly toward Israel and the West, putting it at odds with the very Arab and African nations it claims to lead. The Global South expects solidarity, not equivocation. By trying to please everyone, India has ended up pleasing no one. Developing nations are realizing that when the chips are down, India’s “autonomy” often means looking out for itself, leaving vulnerable partners to fend for themselves.
2025 will be remembered as the year India’s diplomatic luck ran out. The transition from “strategic autonomy” to “aloofness” is not just a semantic shift; it represents a fundamental failure to build deep, trust-based alliances. By alienating its neighbors, frustrating its Western partners, and offering little more than words to the Global South, India risks entering 2026 as a lonely power—large, loud, but increasingly ignored.
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