What the Gaza ceasefire reveals about the new Middle East?

italiatelegraph

Altaf Moti
Pakistan

The recent Gaza ceasefire is more than a temporary truce. It is a revealing moment that exposes shifting power dynamics in the Middle East and the growing global recognition of the Palestinian struggle. While the agreement is fragile, it has forced regional and international actors to confront realities that Israel has long tried to suppress. This ceasefire is not simply a tactical deal; it reflects a changing regional order in which the Palestinian issue has re-emerged as a central question of justice and political legitimacy.
A Transactional Deal with Deep Implications
The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is transactional. It was negotiated step by step, focusing on immediate exchanges and temporary measures rather than a long-term vision. It represents only the first phase of what could become a broader process, but it can also collapse at any time if parties fail to meet their commitments.
Israel enters this process with considerable military strength. It remains the dominant power on the ground. Nothing significant moves without its approval. Yet its ability to dictate terms unilaterally is being challenged by the growing involvement of regional states and global mediators. Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, and the United States all played essential roles in shaping the deal. These actors are increasingly balancing Israeli power, using diplomacy, mediation, and security guarantees to shape outcomes.
Shifting Regional Power Dynamics
The composition of the negotiating table reflects a “new Middle East.” In the past, large Arab states dominated diplomacy through pan-Arab initiatives. Today, smaller Gulf states have emerged as critical mediators because of their unique connections to both Western governments and groups like Hamas. Turkey and Egypt also play active roles.
This redistribution of influence reduces Israel’s ability to isolate the Palestinian question. Regional actors have realized that normalization with Israel, without addressing Palestinian rights, does not bring real stability. The ceasefire negotiations show that Israel cannot bypass Palestinian demands by relying only on bilateral deals with Arab governments.
Israel’s Position of Power and Its Limits
Israel continues to rely on overwhelming military force to impose its will. However, this strategy has reached its limits. After months of bombardment in Gaza, Israel faced growing international criticism for massive civilian casualties, destruction of infrastructure, and collective punishment. Global opinion shifted sharply, and many states began pressing for accountability.
At the same time, internal political divisions in Israel weakened its ability to produce a coherent long-term strategy. Concessions from Israel required political pressure from external actors. Even the United States had to push hard to bring the Netanyahu government to accept aspects of the ceasefire. This shows that Israel’s power is not absolute and that international pressure can shape its behavior.
The Ceasefire Does Not Address Core Issues
Despite its significance, the ceasefire does not resolve any of the core political questions. Gaza’s future governance, border control, security arrangements, and reconstruction remain unsettled. The Israeli occupation of Palestinian land continues. There is no agreed plan for Palestinian sovereignty or for ending decades of systemic discrimination and displacement.
Many analysts have described the ceasefire as tactical rather than strategic. Without addressing root causes, such agreements remain temporary. This view is echoed by Palestinian voices who stress that occupation and injustice are the real sources of instability.
Palestinian Voices Reasserted
The conflict has brought the Palestinian issue back to the international agenda. In recent years, Israel sought to normalize relations with Arab states while bypassing Palestinian rights. This strategy has now been exposed. The war and the subsequent ceasefire have shown that no regional arrangement can be stable without a just solution for Palestinians.
It is also clear that normalization without justice is meaningless. Palestinians demand sovereignty, dignity, and independence. Temporary truces and economic incentives cannot replace these fundamental rights. The ceasefire has strengthened the moral and political claim of Palestinians on the global stage.
Implementation is the Real Test
The success or failure of the ceasefire depends on implementation. Mediators must monitor and enforce commitments. Without credible guarantees, the deal can collapse. Regional actors must remain engaged to keep the process alive.
Enforcement mechanisms are essential. In the absence of accountability, Israel has often violated past agreements with little consequence. The international community must ensure that violations are addressed and that Palestinian rights are upheld. Failure to do so will lead to renewed conflict.
The Two-State Solution Remains Central
Despite years of stagnation, the two-state solution remains the only viable path to lasting peace. No alternative exists that can deliver stability, security, and justice. For Palestinians, this means an independent state with real sovereignty. For Israelis, it means accepting that occupation cannot continue indefinitely without consequences.
The ceasefire provides a narrow opening to restart meaningful political discussions. If seized wisely, it could mark the beginning of a broader transformation. If ignored, it will become another missed opportunity.
A Moment of Choice
The Gaza ceasefire reveals two competing paths. One is the continuation of occupation, repression, and cycles of war — a path that has led to destruction, isolation, and moral condemnation for Israel. The other is a shift towards justice, recognition of Palestinian rights, and genuine regional cooperation.
Palestinians have shown resilience in the face of overwhelming force. Their cause has re-emerged with renewed strength. Regional states and global powers now face a clear test: whether they will allow Israel to continue policies of domination, or whether they will support a fair and lasting political solution.
This ceasefire is not an end. It is a signal of changing realities. Israel’s military power remains strong, but its ability to control the political narrative is weakening. The Palestinian issue has regained international urgency. Regional actors have become more assertive.
A transactional deal can be transformed into a political breakthrough if there is sustained pressure for justice and accountability. The world must not allow Israel to turn this moment into another temporary pause before renewed violence. Genuine peace can only come through ending occupation and recognizing Palestinian rights. Anything less will ensure that history repeats itself.
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