Amjad Ismail Al-Agha, writer and political researcher
The Turkish presidential elections witnessed an unexpected surprise, in terms of Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s inability to defeat his rival, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, in the first round of the elections, as Erdogan was unable to achieve 50 percent +1, and got 49.51 percent. , compared to 44.88 percent for Kilicdaroglu. The event itself was unexpected, as all the expectations that preceded the elections were related to Erdogan’s ability to win the first round, while his party faces challenges that may prevent it from obtaining a comfortable majority in the Turkish parliament.
It is too early to say with certainty who will win the second round of the Turkish presidential elections, especially since the Turkish opposition was able to transfer the elections to a run-off, and perhaps their agreement on one candidate strengthened the support of its candidate Kilicdaroglu, who promised to restore state institutions and restructure the presidency. With the presence of vice-presidents, among the leaders of the “Nation’s Alliance” bloc, including the mayors of Ankara and Istanbul, and a return to parliamentary rule and traditional economic policies.
Within this, the opposition is recorded to have succeeded in exploiting the economic crisis, the presence of millions of Syrian refugees, and pledging to return them to their homelands. Therefore, Turkey is at a crossroads, either change or Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s continuation in power.
In the second round, scheduled for the 28th of this month, there are two competitors with two different styles. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who enjoys a pragmatic personality, is ready to fight during the day and negotiate in the evening, while changing his domestic and foreign policies according to the changes of events, while Kemal Kilicdaroglu tends to be calm in his orientations, and to rule through consultation, in a country with a population of 85 million, and it has complex issues. to deal with it.
The victory of the opposition in the major cities, especially Ankara, Istanbul, Izmir and Diyarbakir, was expected, while Erdogan’s victory in the “earthquake” provinces was surprising, especially since the majority of Turks criticized the government’s response to the earthquake, as being slow and insufficient, which was expected according to it. It leads to mobilizing support for opposition parties, which have openly accused the government of corruption and mismanagement of the disaster.
On the other hand, and according to opinion polls, which came within the framework of Erdogan’s low popularity, the latter still has a solid base, and he is the closest to winning, as long as he has control over the various media and the state’s joints, and in any case the most likely possibilities remain, a victory Erdogan with the presidency and the majority in Parliament, or losing the presidency while preserving the majority in Parliament.
The second round of the Turkish presidential elections, its results will depend on several factors, most notably the voter turnout, the candidates’ campaigns, and the most important thing is the state of the Turkish economy. If the Turkish voter is not satisfied with the current state of the economy, the electoral scene will be subject to many changes, especially since The economy will have a major role in determining the electoral context, and it actually played an important role in the first round, as the Turkish state is struggling with high inflation rates and the depreciation of the Turkish lira against the dollar, which contributed strongly to the low living standards of many Turks, and made It is difficult for companies to operate, as a result it is likely that voters will look for a change in leadership for this reason.
In addition to the above, there have been allegations of corruption in the past Turkish elections, and it is possible that there will be some corruption in the current elections. However, it is important to note that there is no evidence to support these allegations, as the Turkish government has denied any wrongdoing and said that the elections are free. and honest.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that he wants to bring about change in Turkey, and he also says that he has a close relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood, and such statements have a mixed effect on the elections, as some of them believe that Erdogan’s desire for change is a good thing and that he is able to improve the economy and make Turkey a more democratic country. On the other hand, others believe that the change Erdogan is talking about is bad, especially since they believe that he is trying to become more authoritarian. Thus, it is still too early to determine the impact of Erdogan’s statements on the elections in the second round. Nevertheless, it is clear that it is a major issue in the campaign, and the question remains about the future of the politician.
If Recep Tayyip Erdogan loses the elections in its second round, it is unclear what his political future will be like, as during his time in power he built a strong base within the Justice and Development Party, at a time when he was haunted by economic issues and political failures. He may step down as president and leave politics altogether, but he can also stay in politics and try to regain power in the future, and he may also be prosecuted for corruption or other cases.
In the same context, Erdogan’s chances of winning may be enhanced, after the former presidential candidate, Sinan Ogan, announced his support for Erdogan in the second round of the presidential elections to be held in Turkey on the 28th of this month. Ogan’s announcement came, according to what was published by the Turkish newspaper “Hurriyet”, where it stated that the former presidential candidate for Atatürk’s coalition, Sinan Ogan, announced his support for the current president and presidential candidate, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in the second round of the elections.
Based on the aforementioned facts, Erdogan’s political future will depend on a number of factors, including the outcome of the elections, as well as the reaction of his supporters and the actions of the new government. However, it is still too early to say what will happen, but it is clear that Erdogan’s political career is at a crossroads. Methods.