Arab openness to Damascus.. Conditions, challenges and variables.

italiatelegraph

Amjad Ismail Al-Agha

writer and political researcher

“Roles, variables and challenges”. A trilogy frames the Syrian file and most of its titles. The war that began in Syria began according to a predetermined approach, and reached parts whose content contradicted the regional and international trends. Today, although it appears that the Syrian developments and what is related to them in terms of the region, may appear to be under the control of the active and influential forces in Syria. However, the nature of the Syrian developments contradicted and still contradicts all expectations and analyses, especially since the diary of the Syrian file is multi-stage, and each stage has influential forces, especially that the seasons of the Syrian war, as well as the succession of its players, have entered everyone into a spiral of searching for solutions in a country whose geography is shared by five armies, land and influence.

In the Syrian geography that searches for solutions and exits, there are roles, some of which are fading, while others are increasing. The Iranian role is growing with remarkable steadiness, as is the Russian role, despite the latter’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine, and the American role in the position of observer and lurking. As for the Turkish role, it is shifting and allowed to The rest of the roles, by playing on all paths and threads, reaching the Arab role, which was hidden in the beginning, and today has reappeared within new regional equations.

In connection with the foregoing, the beginnings of the crisis in Syria imposed on the Arabs a boycott of Damascus and its political system, in order to suspend Syria’s membership in the Arab League. The logic of the beginnings of the war in Syria was framed by the Damascus boycott as a bet on changing the “regime” in Syria, but it was a boycott that prompted Tehran to intervene forcefully to protect its strategic ally Damascus, which allowed it to strengthen its military, political, and economic presence. Moscow, to prevent the escalation of developments, which have reached the point of threatening Damascus to overthrow.

With the changing regional climates, and the necessities of searching for new equations, the logic of Arab openness in the political face was adopted on Damascus, as this openness, according to the Arabs’ perspective, became necessary to stop Iranian influence in Syria, and it also became an urgent issue to restore the Arab role for Syria, and the Arabs noticed belatedly, that The decline of the Arab role was an important reason for the disintegration of the Saudi-Egyptian-Syrian triangle, and thus the loss of momentum in joint Arab action.

In the US, the openness to Damascus is unacceptable, as the US administration does not encourage the countries of the region to re-establish rapprochement with Damascus. However, the US position did not prevent the occurrence of a state of Arab openness to Damascus, as the US position is determined by conditions, the most important of which is a political settlement between the Syrian state and its opponents. This is in implementation of International Resolution 2254, which paves the way for reconstruction and the return of refugees.

In America, too, there are opinions and trends that differ from the master of the White House, which was expressed by Gregory Koz, professor of international relations at the University of Texas, in an article published by “Foreign Affairs”. In it, it was stated, “America must deal with the powerful rulers in the region, even if they are autocrats. Syria is under the rule of a strong regime that can prevent terrorist organizations from using its lands, and with time puts a distance between it and its Iranian and Russian protectors, and it will be better than the current Syria.

It is better to contact the president.” Assad because Syria in the days of Assad the father and Assad the son kept the borders calm with Israel, and prevented terrorist organizations from using its lands to prepare for attacks on the United States.

The state of the Arab openness to Damascus is based on a number of demands. These are demands translated by the Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, when he focused in his talks with the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, on the importance of a political settlement, the return of refugees and reconstruction. Arab openness and betting on a Russian auxiliary role.

In the context of the above, John Bolton, US National Security Adviser under Donald Trump, recalls in his memoirs, which they titled “The Room Where It Happened,” Putin said to him on the eve of the Helsinki Summit in 2018, “He told Trump that the Russians do not need the Iranians.” In Syria, Russia has no interest in their presence there. On a second occasion, he told him, “The right thing for each of us to do is to motivate the Iranians to leave.” However, the conditions that Moscow is experiencing today in Ukraine force it to rely on Iranian marches, and in the logic of interests it seems that Russia and Iran need each other, whether in Ukraine or in Syria.

Within the questions of the Arab openness to Damascus, a fundamental question emerges at the heart of the state of openness. It is a question related to the possibility of restoring the Egyptian-Saudi-Syrian axis to lead the Arab world, away from Russia and Iran, to emerge at the same time, bets leading the Arab calculations in both its strategic and geopolitical parts, so that the most important question remains, are we witnessing the emergence of an Arab axis to confront the regional powers in the Arab theater? And it is not right to forget the most important development, related to the Iranian-Saudi agreement, whose vocabulary was engineered by China, and despite the time that this agreement will need to show its effects, but it seems that the Arab theater is crowded with active and influential forces, as in Syria with a divided geography under the auspices of five armies, to remain a state of openness Arab against Damascus, subject to conditions, challenges and variables that are difficult to predict.

italiatelegraph