The European Union and NATO.. Strategic shifts.






Amjad Ismail Agha



It has become clear that one of the most prominent manifestations of the war in Ukraine is the consolidation of the idea of the “security dilemma”, which arises due to the steps taken by a country in order to strengthen and increase its security, which makes others feel less safe. When country A feels that it is unsafe, and seeks to create alliances or increase its armament, this leads to the annoyance and sensitivity of country “B” to this step, which it considers a threat to it, which causes it to act in the same way; Which leads to deepening suspicions, and ends up in the lack of security for both countries. From this standpoint, a logical explanation can be given for the desire of Finland and Sweden to join NATO, given their long-term concerns about Russia, and then it is understandable why Russian leaders regard this development as worrisome. .

Within a question framed by many inquiries, the search for the motives of some European countries to enhance their military capabilities and join an alliance under the banner of NATO and the American nuclear tent leads us automatically to Washington’s role in promoting these new policies, and the goals thereof. So far and within the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war, it has become clear that the United States has set two main determinants for what can be called the management of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, one of which is the American desire to put the European Union countries, in front of the fait accompli, in terms of conflict with Russia, and Washington succeeded in this, by placing The countries of the European continent are in a confrontation with Moscow, under the military, economic, security and humanitarian headings . As for the second, Washington has adopted the theory of developing a European sense of the Russian threat, and the need to pay attention to Moscow’s policies and expansionist intentions, and with a further goal, all the countries of the European continent are within a military and economic bloc, to confront Moscow first, and to defend the countries of the European continent against Russian threats secondly.

The above can be approached in a different context. The Europeans also have great misgivings, related to the conviction that the United States will not protect the countries of the European continent against any Russian threats. Also, the Europeans, through the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war, have strengthened their previous conviction, and the Ukrainian scene is better. Evidence.

In a hurry, it must be noted that the realist theory on security studies and international relations has dominated strongly during the past six decades, as this theory seeks to explain the mechanism of action of the international system and the reason for the occurrence of conflict between states. Edward Carr and Hans Morgenthau. Realistic theory generally includes several different currents that differ on important issues, but it shares the main assumptions that distinguish it from other theories, and this means that in fact it does not constitute one completely homogeneous theory. On the contrary, the realist theory has developed to include five forms of The approaches or intellectual currents within this theory are classical realism, neoclassical realism, neorealism, offensive realism, and defensive realism. Traditional realism crystallized mainly in the Cold War period, and the early realist theorists believed that states are the same as humans, as they have an innate desire to control others, which leads them towards collision and wars. Realist theorists, especially Morgenthau, highlighted the advantages of the balance of power system to prevent wars. And curbing conflicts, he also believes that the bipolar system, which is prevalent during the Cold War, carries many risks in terms of the stability of international relations .

In connection with the foregoing, the expected step to expand NATO, through the accession of Finland and Sweden, expressly expresses the realistic theory in international relations, but this would complicate the chapters of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and transfer it to more tension and challenges, as well as prolonging that war, And cut the lines of negotiation between the belligerents. All of this would unleash more conflicts, particularly between Washington and Moscow, which have interests and calculations that transcend the borders of the European continent.

In conjunction with the decision to join Finland and Sweden in NATO, this decision can not only be placed in geopolitical security frameworks, but it is a decision that expressly expresses deep strategic changes that affected the reality of international security, changed the balance of power, and put Moscow in front of a new challenge, which translated Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “Finland’s accession is a direct threat to Russia, and there is no doubt that the expansion of the Atlantic does not make our continent more stable and secure.” “It is not possible that this does not arouse our regret and justify similar equitable responses on our part,” he added, without elaborating. Russian officials have in the past talked about possible measures, including deploying nuclear missiles in the Baltic Sea.

Russia is aware that the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO means directly activating Article 5 of the Alliance Charter, which affirms the principle of collective defense of member states in response to any attack by external parties, which will increase the possibility of a clash between the alliance and Russia, which has become besieged by the alliance. Especially since Russia finds in the expansion of the alliance a direct threat to its national security, and it is under the title of this security that it started its military operation in Ukraine .

In conclusion, the transformations in the European Union countries are placed within the category of emerging strategic facts, for which the world has to deal with their facts realistically, and monitor the dramatic transformations that they may produce on the international stage.


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