The Gaza war in the geopolitical balance and the calculations of regional and international powers

italiatelegraph

 

 

 

 

Amjad Ismail Alagha

 

 

On the land of constants, the titles of wars always change, and their changes impose new facts and data, centered on the calculations of regional and international powers, and the conditions and equations that wars usually produce. Of course, the Gaza war, in its eleven days, opened the door to questions and interpretations wide, not Only in terms of material or human losses only, but there are many strategic meanings imposed by the recent Gaza war, which come in two frameworks, one of which is the offensive ability and the precise tactics enjoyed by the Palestinian factions, in the use of advanced missile systems, as well as the management of the days of the war, and the other, based on On the set of new equations, which you will undoubtedly draw, the results of the war on Gaza.

During the war on Gaza, the future of the region in general, and the question of Palestine in particular, seemed like an open book, containing white pages, to be filled by each party, according to what it imagines or agrees to its desires, but the truth of the matter is, the Gaza war, and the different tactics it witnessed In form and content, and the tower-by-tower equation, as well as the political calculations of each party, all of this will definitely not lead to a complete victory for one party at the expense of the other, so that the terms of victory by knockout, or scoring advanced points over the other, seem far from the content of the war on Gaza, especially since The titles of this war bring each side a limited victory, and a limited loss in the political sense, but in the depth of that, and in an equation that affects the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, he brings strong to what he said, Otto von Bismarck, Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Prussia between 1862 and 1890 “Woe to the statesman whose arguments at the end of the war are not as convincing as they were at the beginning.”

On the other hand, it is not possible to discuss the Palestinian right in the face of the Israeli occupation, but in the Gaza war, it became clear that there is a question that is consistent with the depth of the content of the last round of escalation. It is a question that stems from the determinants of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, whose alphabets and titles came back strongly, when the Palestinian resistance managed to deliver its missiles deep into the occupied territories, and this naturally raises questions about how to manage the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the calculations of balances, circumstances and equations at home and abroad, amid The tremendous sacrifices made and continue to be made by the Palestinian people; As a result, sacrifices should lead to changing the occupational reality, obtaining the Palestinian right, or remaining in the same predicament, as a result of the calculations of some regional countries, which take Palestine and Jerusalem and their liberation slogan as the title of their policy and agenda in the region.

Among the close goals of the last round of escalation, Israel succeeded in establishing a new truce, and regardless of its circumstances, regional interventions, and international pressures, which led to the creation of this truce, Israel set its goals close to the last round of war, with the words of Netanyahu, who wants the war to confuse the cards. As for what Netanyahu aspires to, he is based, according to his vision, on restoring calm and security to Jerusalem and the settlements, and forcing Hamas and Islamic Jihad to pay the price for what the resistance’s rockets caused, as well as attempts to restore deterrence, and this is in short within the secret dream of Israel.

On the other hand, Gaza, too, has defined its close goals in the words of Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’ political bureau, who places the liberation of Palestine as the final goal, and desires a solution based on sacrifices and heroism, and there is no secret in the political calculations of Hamas and Iran, the focus on the nuclear file, As well as on Jerusalem as a symbol of the conflict with Israel, on the Arab and Islamic levels, and on linking the Palestine issue with the axis of resistance led by Iran.

Between this and that, all regional and international accounts, even at the level of the Palestinian interior, seemed to be pouring directly on the doorstep of the Palestinian cause, without diving deep into the path of the final solution. Accordingly, it seems that the approaches to the conflict have changed, and the Palestinian Authority appears within the frameworks of embarrassment and marginalization. The Arab foreign ministers, as they hypothetically held an emergency session related to the developments in Gaza, put the issue in the hands of the international community, and demanded it to assume its responsibilities, and the international community plays, as usual, a single card, which is diplomacy, urging a cease-fire and the start of dialogue, and this definitely proves the new approaches that It stems from three determinants, the first of which is that the Arabs are not ready to engage in a comprehensive conflict and war with Israel, and the second is that the great powers are looking for a climate for a comprehensive settlement, for all the vocabulary of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and the third is the most important, that the only game in the world today is related to the Vienna negotiations and the nuclear agreement with Iran, and no one wants to disturb the Vienna meetings, with a conflict that often seems to be decided results with Israel, and most important of all, that Palestine is no longer a central issue, except in the slogans and the language of speeches.

Within this atmosphere, and in conjunction with the facts of the Gaza war, America, Russia, China and Europe do not want any new events and challenges that would impede Washington’s return to the nuclear agreement, and Tehran’s return to the terms of the agreement, but according to its conditions and its growing regional power, in this context, Israel has double accounts; Some of them are general, and some of them are personal related to Netanyahu’s pursuit of staying in power, evading conviction in the ongoing trial for corruption and bribery, and Israel is definitely against the nuclear agreement, and we do not reveal a secret, if we say that Iran also has complex accounts, towards the nuclear agreement, as well as towards occupied Palestine, if Iran is trying, through diplomatic means, to put pressure on America to put pressure on Israel, but it is certain that it has no intention of all-out war.

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