The Biden administration and the future of relations with Russia … scenarios are not without challenges.

italiatelegraph

 

 

 

 

 

Amjad Ismail Al-Agha

 

 

A Russian reservation after debates emerged over the US election results, translated by official Russian statements that Russian President Vladimir Putin will congratulate the elected president only after the final results are officially announced. This position bore multiple indications regarding Russia’s anticipation of the next American scene, as well as the Russian desire to know the extent of the impact of internal disputes on the transition process in Washington. All this angered the research and study centers to track the course of Russian and American relations in the Biden era, as well as the Russian media, as well as the US, have seized the Russian statements, and put them in the molds of speculation and search for determinants of the relationship between Moscow and Washington, especially since there are many pending files between the two countries. It refers to addressing a series of questions about the future of the relationship between Russia and the United States, and projecting its effects on all regional and international issues.

A follower of Russian-American relations during the Trump era is aware of Russian disappointment with Trump’s policies, especially since Putin had high hopes at the beginning for an improvement in Russian and American relations regarding the Trump presidency, with the possibility of resolving many thorny issues between the two countries, but it turned out later that Trump did not It is at the level of Russia’s ambition to enhance strategic confidence between the two countries, and instead of lifting sanctions on Russia and improving economic relations, the Trump government has imposed 46 new sanctions packages within four years. In addition, during the Trump era, the United States withdrew from the arms treaties that Russia sought to maintain, which is important for the Kremlin, which tried to avoid an expensive and exhausting arms race.

Russian estimates indicate that Joe Biden will be able to mend the rift caused by Trump’s policies towards Europe, and Biden will, on the other hand, mobilize European support for exerting greater pressure on Russia in a number of important files, and despite all the previous remarks on Trump’s policy, it was useful to the Kremlin. In a number of respects; In Syria, it has already abandoned the battlefield to Russia, and in Europe Trump’s policies weakened the alliance of Western democracies, confused NATO partners, and undermined confidence in democratic institutions, and in all of this Moscow benefited.

On a parallel side, the Russian leadership predicted Joe Biden’s future path, which will be based on domestic priorities, especially as the United States is facing a range of crises, ranging from Corona to the economy to unemployment and people’s need for financial aid, to violence, racism and the great division in American Society. The Biden administration will have many arduous tasks during the first period of his administration, and it may extend over the next four years.

The fact of the matter is, Joe Biden is one of the most anti-Putin foes. And he was tasked by Barack Obama with negotiating with the US Congress to pass a new “START” treaty to reduce nuclear warheads between America and Russia, meaning that he was directly concerned with dealing with President Putin. And media outlets reported that the personal relations between the two parties are similar to the relationship between former President Obama and Putin, a relationship that was lacking in mutual trust. However, within this, there are indicators that draw scenarios for a future that is not without challenges between Moscow and Washington, specifically in the files of Syria and Iran, in addition to the absence of new American indicators regarding the strategic space for Russia.

Within all of the above, Moscow does not hide its apprehension as a result of the upcoming steps of the new American administration, especially since there are many unresolved and complex issues, which need to establish a new Russian-American equation that ends the state of drought between the two countries, but on the other hand, the expectations went towards the possibility of occurrence. An improvement in the course of Russian-American relations, due to President-elect Joe Biden’s announcement during his propaganda campaigns that he would return the United States to the arms embargo agreements, and that he intends to cooperate with Moscow to extend the nuclear arms reduction treaty “START”. In spite of this, the Russian preferences seemed pessimistic about most of the other files, especially the expected US policy regarding the conditions in the former Soviet space, as well as the hot files, especially in Syria, Iran and Afghanistan. All this poses a new challenge to the Russian-American relationship. It is a challenge that will not be without challenges that will be tough.

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