Russia, Turkey, and the final scene arrangements in Syria … the exchange of spheres of influence

italiatelegraph

Written by .. Amjad Ismail Al-Agha

The Russian-Turkish balances game has undergone many changes. The Russian player has always changed his position in this game and reformulated his policies according to the priorities of his interests, in a way that does not harm the essence of the balance of power in the regional space, which prompted Russia to change the rules of engagement based on facts and facts that led to the belief that the policy pursued in Syria, no It serves the interests of Damascus and Moscow in the long term, and here is the partial de-escalation areas, which Moscow excelled in engineering its course, and according to which it ended the tension areas one by one.

Within the framework of the temporary understandings between Moscow and Ankara, the Syrian state was able to return to most of the Syrian geographical areas that have been targeted by terrorism. The Syrian and Russian policies were based on the determinants of the return of all regions to the control of the Syrian state, according to political mechanisms but within a limited military framework, and thus the policy of truce and de-escalation areas as a temporary political situation, the aim of which was to search for exits and alternatives to emergency situations throughout the Syrian geography, Up to the settlement, which is often limited to the pattern of handing over the land to the Syrian state, settling their status and handing over their weapons.

In fact, the Russian decision-maker is under pressure from the Russian military leaders to exit the game of balances with Turkey based on its being a less capable player compared to Russia, and therefore it is wrong to grant it certain advantages in Syria or any other arena at the expense of Russian interests. On the other hand, Vladimir Putin views relations with Turkey in a long-term strategic framework, without allowing his counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to expand further in arenas that Russia sees as its strategic field, and Turkey sees a strategic depth of its aspirations.

And between the Russian and Turkish vision, observers believe that Turkey wants to impose a border strip in northern Syria, at a depth of 30 kilometers, to ensure that it controls the border areas that will extend from the northwest to the east of it, and Turkey believes that it will extend to other areas deep in the northeast of Syria. The first of these may be the city of Ain Issa, which is geographically connected to the area of Operation Peace Spring, which would dispel the dangers of the Syrian Democratic Forces being close to its borders, while Russia wants to expand to new areas in the northwest in order to narrow the circle on the forces classified on the lists of terrorism there. , Such as the Turkistan Party and the Al-Nusra Front, and those connected to Al-Qaeda, whose paper Turkey used to strengthen its position, as it did not work to dismantle those forces and end their influence, according to the Moscow agreement.

On the other hand, Russia seeks to activate commercial traffic on international roads and link it to the port of Tartus, which is within its sphere of influence, as well as to protect the vicinity of its main base in Syria from any attacks and targeting via drones. Therefore, Russia will intend to fully control the perimeter of the international road “M4”, similar to what happened after the Syrian army carried out a wide military operation, and seized the entire international road “M5” after controlling strategic cities in the countryside of Aleppo and Idlib, the most important of which was Saraqib and Maarat al-Numan Russia considers that Turkish withdrawals from observation points in exchange for swaps over areas of influence is appropriate for it as well as it is with Turkey; By virtue of the geographical need for these areas for both sides.

The scenario of the new exchange of influence between Moscow and Ankara is very similar to the field developments that took place at the beginning of this year, and ended with the control of the Syrian forces over large areas of northern Syria, at which time Turkey threatened to launch large-scale operations to recover the lands lost by the terrorist factions; Especially after the incident of the killing of more than 20 Turkish soldiers in a Syrian-Russian air strike, and Erdogan threatened a massive escalation against the Syrian army forces if they did not withdraw from the areas they advanced to. Syrian forces on the new areas along the international highway “M5”.

On a parallel side, the American presence in the northeast of Syria represents the main obstacle to any exchange of spheres of influence. However, the exploitation of the preoccupation with the interactions that followed the American elections, will constitute a lever for Moscow, Ankara and the rule of Damascus to rearrange the cards of northern Syria and build understandings A long-term new relationship between Damascus and Ankara, which will establish a new scene in the countryside of Idlib and Aleppo, so that the paper east of the Euphrates will remain suspended until the foggy American scene evacuates, despite the timid American withdrawals from some bases in northeastern Syria.

ln conclusion, we can build conclusions that summarize as follows:

First – Turkey has worked to stay in its besieged observation points in northern Syria since the beginning of this year, in order to use it as a negotiating card for its benefit, with which to barter Damascus and Moscow’s attempts to extend in the northeastern border areas.

Second – The coming period may witness a new Turkish withdrawal from other checkpoints, seeking to expand its influence within the border strip that it seeks to establish with Russia.

Third – The Syrian state is approaching the expansion of new cities from the northwest in the countryside of Idlib, reaching deep into Jericho and Jisr al-Shughour to give priority to its control in the southern sector of the Idlib region to reduce the escalation, taking advantage of Turkey’s endeavor to go south of the “Peace Spring” area, as well as controlling strategic cities For her, like Manbij and Tal Rifaat.

Fourth – It is likely that Russia, Syria and Turkey will try to take advantage of the current political busyness in the United States and the atmosphere of the presidential elections, to establish a new consensual scene that includes all regions in northeastern Syria, but according to the timing of Damascus.

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